In May, Canada Disappoints Once Again on the Rehiring Front

Canada’s Labor Market Hopes on Hold

In May, for the second month in a row, total employment in Canada retreated instead of stepping forward, putting a hold on hopes for an improving labor market. The latest month-to-month decline in total jobs was -68,000, coming on the heels of April’s setback of -207,000 jobs.

The nation’s seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in May worsened slightly to 8.2% from the prior month’s 8.1%. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) U rate stayed flat at 7.1%.

Canada’s jobs recovery ratio, i.e., versus the big loss in employment between February and April of last year,  stayed close to 80%, a level where it has hovered for the last several months.

At least, for Canadians, there’s some consolation to be found in their jobs claw-back ratio, at 80.9%, being better than America’s, 65.9%.

The Canadian construction sector in the latest month shed -15,000 jobs, but its level of employment is up nicely, +15.9% y/y. (By way of comparison, total employment nationwide is +12.9% y/y.)     

Furthermore, construction’s loss of jobs was less than half the decline (-36,000) recorded by the manufacturing sector. Canadian manufacturing employment is currently (i.e., as of May 2021) +12.1% y/y.

Manufacturing, though, has a better jobs claw-back ratio than construction, 90.9% to 82.9%.

The recent weakness in rehiring isn’t helping workers maintain the kinds of large compensation increases they were being lavished with last year. For all employees, as set out in Table 3, both average weekly (-2.3%) and average hourly earnings (-1.6%) are off on a year-over-year basis.

In May, average weekly earnings for part-time work recorded the sharpest pullback, -8.1% y/y.

Graph 1: Canada: Month-to-Month Total Employment Change

Latest data point is for May 2021.

Data sources: Household Survey, Statistics Canada.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Table 1: Monitoring the Canadian Employment Recovery ‒ May 2021

Data source: Statistics Canada.
Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 2: U.S. and Canadian Jobs Markets – May 2021

SA is seasonally adjusted / NSA is not seasonally adjusted.
U.S. labor data is from a ‘payroll survey’ / Canadian labor data is from a ‘household survey’.
Canadian NSA unemployment rate ‘R3’ is adjusted to U.S. concepts (i.e., it adopts U.S. equivalent methodology).

Data sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Statistics Canada.
Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 3: Canadian Workforce Earnings
Year Over Year, May 2021

Based on not seasonally adjusted (NSA) ‘current’ dollar data.
‘Current’ means there has been no scaling back to remove the effects of inflation.

Data source: Table 11, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.
Table: ConstructConnect.

Graph 2: Manufacturing vs Construction Employment in Canada

The last data points are for May, 2021

Data source: Statistics Canada.
Table: ConstructConnect.

Graph 3: Canada Employment in Construction vs Manufacturing

The last data point is for May, 2021

Data source: Statistics Canada.
Table: ConstructConnect.

B.C.’s Workplace the Leader Among Provinces

In provincial labor markets, British Columbia is the standout. Only on the West Coast is the unemployment rate (7.0%) lower than the national figure (8.2%) and the rate of y/y jobs increase (+15.1%) greater than the Canada-wide advancement (+12.9%).

Also, B.C.’s share of the national increase in jobs, year over year, at 16.2%, is higher than its slice of the country’s total population, 13.5%.

For Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta, their shares of the nation-wide jobs increase y/y are in line with their population representation: Ontario, a 38.8% share for population and a 39.1% share for Canada-wide nominal jobs increase y/y; Quebec, 22.5% and 21.5%; and Alberta, 11.7% and 12.4%.

Table 4: Canada’s Provincial Labour Markets – May 2021

Data Source (seasonally adjusted figures): Statistics Canada.
Table: ConstructConnect.

Graph 4: Canada’s Provincial Labour Markets – May 2021

Data Source: Statistics Canada.
Chart: ConstructConnect.